Touchdowns per Game. For every 0.5 in turnover margin that they are able to achieve, you can expect around 1.25 extra wins. Each dot represents a team in that four-year period. What I found in my research is that the key is to focus on the offense and whether or not you think there’s a good possibility they will turn the ball over. “It starts with me. Talent overcoming adversity? Under Taylor, the Bengals are just 1-18 when they lose the turnover differential with the lone win coming this season against Baltimore in Week 7. 2, … Over the last five seasons, teams have an overall win percentage of .784 when winning the turnover battle, according to Radar360. You can’t predict a bad bounce of the ball, there are multiple factors that go into turnovers. “It starts with me. That dropped the Chiefs to minus-7 in turnover differential, better only than lowly Jacksonville in the entire NFL. Togiai had the 3rd-highest pass-rush win rate (16.1 percent) and T-8th best run-stop percentage (10.1 percent) among all Power-5 interior defensive linemen in … WASHINGTON PLAYER TO WATCH: DT Jonathan Allen leads the team with six sacks and has been the defense’s best player all season. The following year they turned in an 8-8 regular season featuring a small positive turnover differential. Per-game turnover margin is on the X-axis and winning percentage is on the Y-axis: It's not shocking to see that on average, a higher per-game turnover margin leads to more wins. There are teams and schemes that excel in this department. Kansas City (2-3) will visit the Washington Football Team (2-3) in a Week 6 matchup on Sunday. Three of them were on me,” Mahomes said. The unit had 10 such games in 2020. -11: The Jaguars are T-31st in turnover differential ( … Visit ESPN to view 2021 NFL team stats. Three of them were on me,” Mahomes said. We have three candidates to look at for 2019 in the Titans (second year in a row), Ravens and Steelers. AGAINST THE SPREAD: Browns 5-4; Patriots 5-4. That dropped the Chiefs to minus-7 in turnover differential, better only than lowly Jacksonville in the entire NFL. It’s no secret. They recovered ten of fourteen fumbles. The Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers each endured double-digit negative turnover differentials in 2020 and can therefore be somewhat expected to improve on this front this year. Mahomes has thrown 10 picks in eight games, flirting with his career-high of 12 that he needed 16 games to reach. The following season, their record in one-score games more than doubled to 45%. Applying this theory (which does include some subjective "judgment calls" ), from 2002-2013, in the NFL, a team's seasonal turnover differential was 54.7% attributed to luck. Since 2017, 18 teams posted a win percentage of 30% or worse in one-score games. The following are the turnover differential statistics for the 2017 NFL season . As their lead grows they can play it safe and sit back and wait for the opposition to make another mistake. That dropped the Chiefs to minus-7 in turnover differential, better only than lowly Jacksonville in the entire NFL. In order to make sure that this long held belief was just as true today as it was generations ago I decided to check the numbers for myself. Last season, the Texans defense was ranked in the NFL basement in almost every meaningful category, including turnover differential. +13: The Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential (+13) and are T-first in takeaways (18). Turnover Differential - NFL Week 10. Turnover margin usually decides games,” Mahomes said. The Panthers (5-5) are minus-6 in turnover margin and have a 78.3 differential in how passers do against them versus how their QBs perform. Based on the percentages at least 2 of these 3 teams will finish with a worse record. ... and has won 75% overall for its best winning percentage against an opponent. With that said, I think you can look at the make-up of each team in a given season and get a feel for how things could go in the turnover department. On the other end of the spectrum, the teams that finished in the bottom ten in turnover differential finished 287-512-1. ... this year but their minus-four turnover differential has hurt them. Yards per Point Margin. That is an identical and astonishing 71.4 percent success rate on fumble recoveries. They put the pressure on the opposing team and when that team makes a mistake they capitalize. So the question then becomes how can a team become one of the “rich” when it comes to turnover differential? The trendline gives us a formula that tells us how many wins a team with a turnover margin of "x" should achieve given the historical data. *This is just insane. Buffalo's defense will focus on Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor , who leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage (1,240). The Chiefs gave away the ball four times against the Bills — Patrick Mahomes threw two picks, one returned for a touchdown, and they lost a pair of fumbles — while their much-maligned defense failed to generate a single turnover of its own. As you can see in the table below, teams don’t just win at an alarming rate, they also cover the spread. A team commits a turnover that causes them to fall behind, they press because they’re in a hole and commit another, then they’re far enough behind that they have to gamble and they just continue to sink deeper and deeper. 1 in the league in total defense (251.8 yards), yards allowed per play (4.46), turnover differential (+11) and points allowed (12.8 ppg), while also leading the league in … Instead, the rebuild under head coach Ron Rivera seems to be going in the other direction at 3-6. Turnover Differential is calculated by subtracting the total number of giveaways (interceptions & fumbles lost) from the total number of takeaways (interceptions & opponent fumble recoveries). Mahomes committed two turnovers in Week 5 on passes of fewer than 10 air yards -- this after leading the NFL with an 87.2 completion percentage and 133.5 passer rating in … If there are any Chiefs fans that would like to check it out, you can read it HERE. Indianapolis went 5-2 in one-score games last season – a 71.4% win rate. Any extreme win/loss records in those games tend to revert near 50% the following season. Three of them were on me,” Mahomes said. A quarterback who isn’t going to put his defense in a bad spot by throwing an interception. I’m not about to say luck isn’t involved. The Panthers (5-5) are minus-6 in turnover margin and have a 78.3 differential in how passers do against them versus how their QBs perform. The Jaguars’ biggest Achilles heel this season has been turnovers. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Cincinnati minus-2; Detroit minus-1. This year's top overall draft pick … -11: The Jaguars are T-31st in turnover differential ( … Those words, or at least ones very similar, have been preached by football coaches and analysts for as long as the NFL has been playing games. No better example than the Patriots run here with Belichick and Brady. Each dot represents a team in that four-year period. Per-game turnover margin is on the X-axis and winning percentage is on the Y-axis: It's not shocking to see that on average, a higher per-game turnover margin leads to more wins. So if I told you that teams in today’s NFL that consistently won the turnover battle won almost twice as many games as those that consistently lose the turnover battle, I’m guessing you wouldn’t be very surprised. The connection between turnovers and wins is indisputable. Per The Football Database, their -9 turnover differential this season is fourth-worst among all teams. Pittsburgh's .662 winning percentage (49-25) on Monday night is the highest the NFL. Chances are they will win more games the following year. Turnover Differential is calculated by subtracting the total number of giveaways (interceptions & fumbles lost) from the total number of takeaways (interceptions & opponent fumble recoveries). The relationship is somewhat strong, but obviously there are many other factors that go into winning percentage. While looking at the previous season might not help us predict who will win the turnover battle for a particular game the next year, it’s a great tool to use for making your win total predictions. Adhering to the premise that 80 percent of turnovers are random, teams that have poor Turnover Margins generally improve, and vice versa. In fact, projected win differential is equal to -0.16 times the previous season’s turnover margin or is equal to -0.024 times the previous season’s turnover luck in terms of points. How close to greatness is UCF’s spread-iso offense? Given the formula from the chart, we can determine how many games each team should have won in a season based solely on their turnover margin. There have been just 35 times that a team fell in this spot. NFL Injury Report; 2021 NFL Draft; ... winning the turnover differential is crucial to success and the Browns have enough talent in the defensive … The Colts, meanwhile, find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum with a +11 differential, second-best in the league. It doesn't help that the defense has mustered just 11 sacks, tied for the second-worst mark in the league, allows an average of 27.5 points per game and has a minus-11 turnover differential, nearly the NFL's worst margin. The Colts ended the season at a +10 net turnover differential, which was second-best in the league. Typically teams who have a smart experienced quarterback, a strong emphasis on ball security and a tenured offensive coordinator, are the teams that win the turnover battle on a regular basis. We have 38 examples of teams who have posted a losing record with a positive turnover margin. This team gained 12 turnovers and lost 36. Let's say your team is talented enough to win around 6 games. As you can see it doesn’t happen as frequently. As we expected, teams who finish with a winning record and negative turnover differential are more likely to fail to match the previous year’s success. Before an unexpected upset of Tampa Bay in Week 10, Washington's only wins had come against sub-.500 teams, and its minus-61 point differential is the worst in the NFC East.. Taylor Heinicke has started eight games with Ryan Fitzpatrick out with a hip injury and has … Dec 22, 2013; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman (25) and Seattle Seahawks free safety Earl Thomas (29) celebrate after Sherman intercepted a pass thrown by Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer (3) (not pictured) during the second half at CenturyLink Field. The numbers agree with us. The Cardinals' defense is last in the NFL in turnover percentage, forcing them on 3.8 percent of drives, but the team is fifth in points allowed at 20.4 per game. 78 teams since 1990 have posted a winning percentage of 20% or below in one-score games. When it comes to turnovers the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Answer (1 of 3): After the 2014 Super Bowl, someone on Reddit compiled this handy list of the offensive and defensive ranks of all the Super Bowl winners: * The average defensive ranking was 5.6 while the average offensive rank was 6.1 * The #1 … Your favorite teams, topics, and players all on your favorite mobile devices. KEY: Gms = Games Played, Int = Interceptions, Fum = Fumbles, Tot = Total … From 1950 to 2016, the average winning percentage of teams that won the turnover … Last year, teams that won the turnover battle won 78% of their games. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Cincinnati minus-2; Detroit minus-1. I adjusted the formula's output from a winning percentage to number of wins in a 12-game schedule: So if your team averages a turnover margin of around +1, you can expect them to win around 8-9 games (all other things equal -- and they never are). TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Cowboys plus-7; Patriots minus-3. The team that wins the turnover battle greatly improves their chancing of winning. The following slides will look at those teams to see if there are similarities in what caused these dramatic changes in production. The Ravens were minus-two in turnover differential and 2-for-14 on 3rd-down. NFL Team Total Offense Stats 2021 If you can accurately predict who will win the turnover margin, you are going to have a very profitable season betting on the NFL. The Panthers (5-5) are minus-6 in turnover margin and have a 78.3 differential in how passers do against them versus how their QBs perform. ... and has won 75% overall for its best winning percentage against an opponent. The Jaguars’ biggest Achilles heel this season has been turnovers. Going further, we can see which teams over- or under-achieved their projected win total. PATRIOTS PLAYER TO WATCH: LB Matt Judon has led New England’s’ pass rush this season, getting a … Underachievers - 4 years in a row: (actual wins - projected wins). OPENING LINE: Patriots by 1 1/2, according to FanDuel SportsBook. Last season, teams that had a positive turnover edge in a game were 151-46-1 straight up (76.6 percent) and 151-41-6 against the spread (78.6 percent). Do teams lose because they turn the ball over or do teams that are losing turn the ball over more because they have to gamble because they are losing? His pick percentage has gone from a league-low 1.0% last season to 3.1% and twice he's thrown two interceptions in a game; he's thrown at least two just four other times in his career. Turnover Differential - NFL Week 13 Teams that do not turn the ball over are far more likely to win straight up. Baltimore is 5-1 at M&T Bank Stadium on "Sunday Night Football." Some teams are able to post a winning record with a negative turnover differential and vice versa. The general assumption for most amateur bettors is to look back on how a team did the previous season and go off of that. 2021 NFL Turnover Differential. Of the teams who have finished in the bottom three, only twice has a team finished with a worse turnover margin the next year (2012 Eagles & 2007 49ers). In fact, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 78.7% of the time. The good news is the Colts have done a good job turning the ball over — they're fourth in the NFL with 12 takeaways and third with a plus … Yes, the Patriots are in the minority when it comes to teams that consistently finish with a positive turnover margin. The Texans 2020 squad ended with a turnover differential of -9. » Regular-season turnover differential: Win the turnover battle, win the game. Identifying teams that are susceptible to turning the ball over can go a long way to picking winners. At the same time, teams who struggled in this area tend to improve quite a bit over the next season. Just don’t make this mistake. Teams that are plus-2 or better have won 88.0 percent of the time. That should remove any doubt on whether you should be handicapping this when you are making your bets for the week. Few teams have a quarterback as gifted as Brady and a defensive mastermind as their head coach. -2 per game! TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Cincinnati minus-2; Detroit minus-1. The raw statistics suggest the Kansas City Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. “Turnovers are a huge deal in this league. The R squared (coefficient of determination) for the trendline shown in the chart is 37%, meaning that turnovers "explain" 37% of the win total data in this model. Points per Play. Here they are again. Right behind them are the Colts at 21 (10 interceptions, league-best … Build your customFanSided Daily email newsletter with news and analysis onWashington Football Team and all your favorite sports teams, TV shows, and more. One could have a “chicken or the egg” debate over the relationship between the two. Beasley is also tied for the AFC lead in receptions after three weeks and is tied for third in the NFL with 23. The Titans (8-6) are the only team in the AFC and one of just two in the NFL with a winning record — or even a .500 winning percentage — and a negative turnover differential. I think the best way to look at this is as follows. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Washington minus-3; Panthers minus-5. JAGUARS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Trevor Lawrence. For every 0.5 in turnover margin that they are able to achieve, you can expect around 1.25 extra wins. Given the formula from the chart, we can determine how many games each team should have won in a season based solely on their turnover margin. Going further, we can see which teams over- or under-achieved their projected win total. Average Scoring Margin. This wouldn’t be a bad strategy if teams didn’t undergo several personnel changes (players & coaches). They don’t turn the ball over. Mahomes committed two turnovers in Week 5 on passes of fewer than 10 air yards -- this after leading the NFL with an 87.2 completion percentage and 133.5 passer rating in … With the offense and defense working together, Buffalo currently ranks 4th in scoring (31.3 ppg) and 5th in points allowed (12.7 ppg). That dropped the Chiefs to minus-7 in turnover differential, better only than lowly Jacksonville in the entire NFL. Just in case you're interested in the extremes: Top 5 highest turnover margins:+1.69 (2009 Air Force, 8-5)+1.62 (2012 Oregon, 12-1)+1.62 (2011 Oklahoma State, 12-1)+1.54 (2012 Boise State, 11-2)+1.54 (2009 Rutgers, 9-4), Top 5 lowest turnover margin: -2.00 (2009 Miami OH, 1-11)*-1.58 (2012 Colorado, 1-11)-1.58 (2012 South Florida, 3-9)-1.58 (2012 Arkansas, 4-8)-1.50 (2012 New Mexico State, 1-11). Out of the 38 occurrences, 28 times (74%) the team went on to post the same or better record than the previous year. Dallas has a plus-7 turnover differential, as CB Trevon Diggs became the first Cowboy since 1970 with picks in the first four games of a season. This chart shows how turnover margin correlates to winning percentage over the past four seasons in college football (2009 - 2012). NFL teams cover the spread almost 69% (68.4%) of the time when they simply force one more turnover than the opposition. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Cowboys plus-7; Patriots minus-3. Per The Football Database, their -9 turnover differential this season is fourth-worst among all teams. The … The Dolphins held Lamar Jackson to just 39 rushing yards on … It’s not just Mahomes, though. That's a pretty solid group of programs. Vegas swept the series last year, including a 32-31 win in the season finale despite a minus-4 turnover differential. I’m guessing there’s going to be a lot of you that say it’s too difficult to predict who will win the turnover battle on a game-to-game basis. "It starts with me. At a rate of two turnovers generated per game with the offense not turning the ball over (or a +2 turnover difference), a Harvard sports analytical study found that teams with a … And from 2007 to 2016, teams that won the turnover battle won 78% of their games. Dallas (.571) is No. In comparison, teams that are winning at halftime only win 77.2% of the time. ... teams in all-time regular-season winning percentage. Team that win the turnover battle have won 72.6 percent of the time. In fact, projected win differential is equal to -0.16 times the previous season’s turnover margin or is equal to -0.024 times the previous season’s turnover luck in terms of points. Keep in mind that win totals are often set based on last year’s record, so we should be able to find some value in betting NFL win totals. Buffalo is No. The Steelers' defense has yet to produce a multiple-turnover game in 2021. “It starts with me. That puts the winning percentage of a team committing four-plus turnovers in a game at .200 (a one-in-five chance that an NFL team will win if they lose the ball four or more times in a game). All they did was go 10-6 after a 4-12 mark in 2016 for a net +6 in wins. Last year the only candidate on the board was the Indianapolis Colts. The following are the turnover differential statistics for the 2021 NFL season.Turnover Differential is calculated by subtracting the total number of giveaways (interceptions & fumbles lost) from the total number of takeaways (interceptions & opponent fumble recoveries). That post got me looking into the turnover differential numbers for the past five seasons (2009-2013). Powered by Minute Media © 2021 All Rights Reserved. ... and has won 75% overall for its best winning percentage against an opponent. What a miserable season. Washington Football Team news fromFanSided Daily, Patti Labelle joins the cast of American Horror Story: Freak Show, UCF president denies George O’Leary retirement rumor, Lamar Jackson uncertain to play vs. Bears with illness, NFL Announces List Of Players Placed With Franchise Tag, Cardinals likely turning to Colt McCoy vs. Seahawks with Kyler Murray still recovering, 2021 bowl projections: South Carolina bowl projections after beating Auburn, Oregon’s loss opens door to 2-loss Alabama making College Football Playoff. They’ve also tied the conference lead in turnover differential (plus-3). Red Zone Scores per Game (TDs only) My hypothesis was that teams who were able to finish with a winning record despite a negative turnover margin were inclined to struggle the next season, while teams who thrived in the turnover department and ended up with a losing record would see a bump in their win total the next year. Differential Record; Source: National Football League: Miami: 30: 13 +17: 11-5: Tennessee: 31: 17 +14: 13-3: Baltimore: 34: 21 +13: 11-5: New York Giants: 22: 13 +9: 12-4: Indianapolis: 26: 17 +9: 12-4 Here’s a look at the results of both scenarios and how teams have responded the next year. In fact, the team that wins the turnover battle wins the game 78.7% of the time. 481: Buffalo's 481 total net yards on … Despite this knowledge, it’s a stat that is often overlooked when handicapping the NFL. Every year teams will defy the turnover statistic. Turnover differential: -10 First of all, to those of you who aren't familiar with the concept of Pythagorean expectation, it is a stat that uses point differential to … So what does it mean if a team wins more games that the turnover margin formula says they should? Dumb luck? (This strikes me as the kind of game where you win the turnover battle, you win the game.) What does it mean to be balanced on offense? The Bills lead the NFL with 24 takeaways (15 interceptions, nine fumble recoveries. The NFL turnover differential – the difference between the number of times a team turns the ball over, and the number of times they recover a turnover from their opponents – is a very powerful statistic for football handicappers. There are quarterback’s like Alex Smith who is the definition of a game-manager. Through in-depth analysis, he identified key in-game factors—turnover differential and penalty yardage, among others—that directly correlate with winning probability. A lot of attention is payed to defenses and their ability to force turnovers, but a lot of luck is involved when it comes to creating turnovers. A team who wins the turnover differential in a game wins 69.6 percent of the time, while winning the turnover margin by two or more means a winning percentage of 83.9. 2, … Same thing with teams who finish at the bottom. The Colts lost in the Wild-Card game. SERIES RECORD: Browns lead 13-12. Red Zone Scoring Attempts per Game. The R squared (coefficient of determination) for the trendline shown in the chart is 37%, meaning that turnovers "explain" 37% of the win total data in this model. The trendline gives us a formula that tells us how many wins a team with a turnover margin of "x" should achieve given the historical data. Revisiting the 2009 college football season with advanced box scores. NFL Pythagorean Expectation 2020, Turnover Margin, Point Differential, and How it Correlates to Win Totals Posted on August 14, 2020 (August 25, 2020) by Payne Insider Written By Billy Attridge That’s a difference of nearly half a … BROWNS PLAYER TO WATCH: WR Donovan Peoples-Jones could be on the verge of a big breakout. That’s a winning percentage of about 35.9 percet and equates to about 5.7 wins per season. Third-down conversion percentage (offense): San Francisco, 31.43%/Chicago, 31.25% Teams who win the turnover battle win 78 percent of their games, or just over three-quarters. With the way the NFL is today it’s not a good idea to put any emphasis on the previous year. Note that 59% is right in the middle of the winning percentage of a 9 or 10 win team. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports, “The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game.”. The entire NFL conversation between Cosell and DA can be accessed in the audio player above. Good coaching? Arizona defeated Seattle 17-10. Coaching overachievers and underachievers, Revisiting the 2010 college football season with advanced box scores. Three of them were on me,” Mahomes said. Out of the 35, there have been 24 times (68.6%) that a team finished with the same or worse record. I would argue that it's pretty simple -- good teams have the talent and the coaching to overcome a few turnovers. San Francisco at Arizona (-5, 50) The Steelers' defense has yet to produce a multiple-turnover game in 2021. +13: The Bills lead the NFL in turnover differential (+13) and are T-first in takeaways (18). It has 78-percent win odds according to our models, and 91 percent of the public is picking the Ravens. It’s why in a league dominated by elite quarterbacks with big arms, a signal caller like Smith can post a 94-66-1 record as a starter (58.8%). Here’s a look at the top and bottom five teams on each side of the turnover differential from 2018. According to FiveThirtyEight's projections, the Chiefs have a 64-percent chance to reach the playoffs and a 19-percent chance to win the AFC West. 2017 NFL Turnover Differential. Three of them were on me," Mahomes said. The numbers really tell the story here. “Turnovers are a huge deal in this league. The Colts rank second in turnover differential (+11) and takeaways (21). Teams that do not turn the ball over are far more likely to win straight up. That was the 2012 New England Patriots and 2016 Kansas City Chiefs. It's not just Mahomes, though. Buffalo’s defense has been applying regular pocket and QB pressure to opposing defenses and is tied for the AFC lead in takeaways (six.) As I looked through the numbers for the past five seasons I found that there were multiple examples where teams had dramatic shifts in turnover differential (both good and bad) that correlated with drastic changes in their win/loss record. What I found is that the numbers do link turnover differential and winning percentage. I think there are so many factors that go into a small sample size college football season that it's difficult to isolate a definitive answer here, but let's take a look at the programs that have overachieved their projected wins in each of the last four seasons: Overachievers - 4 years in a row: (actual wins - projected wins). The R squared (coefficient of determination) for the trendline shown in the chart is 37%, meaning that turnovers "explain" 37% of the win total data in this model. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Giants plus-3; Buccaneers plus-3 ... seven-time Super Bowl champion leads the NFL with 27 touchdown passes and is third with 2,870 yards. This is the first real turnover gap in weeks, with the Bears -2 and the Niners -7. And if they win it by +2, like Denver on Sunday, they win 87 percent of games. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Patriots plus-3; Falcons minus-5. During that five-year span teams that finished in the top ten in turnover differential finished 521-278-1. The Colts, meanwhile, find themselves on the opposite end of the spectrum with a +11 differential, second-best in the league. Yards per Point. Some of which I think you can predict with some accuracy. The Niners have a -9 turnover differential, which is tied for the second worst in the league … San Francisco has won the last four meetings. TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Browns 0; Patriots plus-2. Turnovers are like quicksand. That’s a winning percentage of 65.2 percent and equates to about 10.4 wins per season. His pick percentage has gone from a league-low 1.0% last season to 3.1% and twice he’s thrown two interceptions in a game; he’s thrown at least two just four other times in his career. Pittsburgh's .662 winning percentage (49-25) on Monday night is the highest the NFL. However, If it is used incorrectly by the sports bettor it can lead to disaster. The relationship is somewhat strong, but obviously there are many other factors that go into winning percentage.

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